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Publication Profiles

Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the “Getting to Zero” strategy in Illinois, USA

Citation

Khanna AS, Edali M, Ozik J, et al. Projecting the number of new HIV infections to formulate the “Getting to Zero” strategy in Illinois, USA. Math Biosci Eng. 2021;18(4):3922-3938. doi:10.3934/mbe.2021196

Implementation stage:

Pre-Implementation

Implementation outcomes reported:

Not applicable

Continuum target addressed:

ART initiation, ART adherence, PrEP initiation, PrEP persistence

Geography:

Illinois

Study Participant Classification:

Recipients of care

Plain Language Objectives

The researchers wanted to estimate how much greater use of HIV treatment and HIV-prevention medicine might reduce new infections among young Black men who have sex with men in Illinois. They compared results from three different models.

Plain Language Abstract

Illinois’s Getting to Zero initiative seeks to eliminate new HIV infections by expanding treatment for people with HIV and pre-exposure prophylaxis, or PrEP, for people at risk. Researchers used three different models—two based on HIV incidence over time and one simulating individuals in a network—to project infections among young Black men who have sex with men from 2016 through 2030. All three models projected that increasing both treatment and PrEP would be more effective than increasing either one alone. A 20-percentage-point increase in both was not projected to eliminate new infections, and a 20-point treatment increase appeared more effective than the same increase in PrEP. All models projected that increasing both by 30 percentage points could reach the initiative’s goals. The authors noted that achieving this scale would require addressing social and structural barriers to care. These are projections, not observed outcomes. The estimates depend on the models’ assumptions and input data, and they do not establish that a particular program will produce the projected increases or reductions.

Key Takeaways

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